Sunday, December 17, 2006

Update: MacWorld Expo Apple Stock Price Correlation

Back in February, I posted a blog about the stock trend of Apple Computer stock as the San Francisco MacWorld convention approaches. In four out of the last five years, Apple Computer stock (AAPL on NASDAQ) has increased by at least 8% and as much as 37%, measured from November 15 to the last day of the Expo in January. Why has this happened? There are several factors that most likely contribute to this such as strong year-end sales of Apple products from holiday shopping and anticipation of new products to be released at the Expo. In addition, there is the heavy promotion of the Expo which is indirect promotion of the stock.

The Apple Expos are huge, and amazingly, the convention revolves around this one company. Ever heard of a Dell Expo, or a Hewlett Packard Expo (Hewlett Packard is even an exhibitor at the Apple Expo).

The following table shows the results since 2001:

11/15/2001 ....... 9.73 ..... 1/11/2002 ..... 10.52 ........ 8%
11/15/2002 ....... 7.97 ..... 1/10/2003 ....... 7.36 ...... -8%
11/15/2003 ..... 10.56 ..... 1/9/2004 ...... 11.50 ........ 9%
11/15/2004 ..... 27.62 ..... 1/14/2005 ..... 35.10 ..... 27%
11/15/2005 ..... 62.28 ..... 1/13/2006 ..... 85.59 ..... 37%
11/15/2006 ..... 84.05 ..... 12/15/2006 .... 87.72 ..... 4%
so far

A few notes about this analysis. This just looks at the 'effect' of the MacWorld Expo in San Francisco, not New York or Boston. If a date fell on a weekend, it was moved to the next business day to determine pricing. All prices were adjusted for splits.

The overall average of the returns for the first five years listed above is 14%. We will see by the last day of the Expo on January 12, 2007 if this trend holds up. Keep in mind that past performance is not a guarantee of future results. In the interest of full disclosure, the proprietor of Stockerblog and his family members owns shares in Apple Computer. No recommendation is expressed or implied.

1 comment:

Bill Marriott said...

I would be interested in seeing what happens to the stock right after the Expo ends. Does the stock lose the gains or does it maintain the new share price. More importantly, is this an opportunity to sell the week of the expo and re-buy a month later when the stock is reset.