Monday, February 27, 2006

MacWorld Expo Apple Stock Price Indicator

If you have ever been to one of the MacWorld Expo Conferences, you will see what a huge number of people and vendors that it draws. How many corporations have huge conferences like this that just revolve around them?

One of the things I've noticed about the San Francisco MacExpo is that the stock price of Apple Computer shoots up as the conference approaches. I would call this the MacWorld Expo Apple Stock Price Indicator Trend if it turns out to be true. I finally had the chance to check to see if what I remembered really happened. So what I did was check the prices for Apple Computer stock about a couple months before the conference ended. I chose November 15 for each year to keep it consistant. This is around the time that the conference is heavily promoted to draw attendees. Then I checked the price for the last day of the conference (better than the first day, let's everyone get a chance to get in to see it). I calculated the gain or loss for each conference. The following table shows what I came up with:
11/15/2001 ....... 9.73 ..... 1/11/2002 ..... 10.52 ........ 8%
11/15/2002 ....... 7.97 ..... 1/10/2003 ....... 7.36 ...... -8%
11/15/2003 ..... 10.56 ..... 1/9/2004 ...... 11.50 ........ 9%
11/15/2004 ..... 27.62 ..... 1/14/2005 ..... 35.10 ..... 27%
11/15/2005 ..... 62.28 ..... 1/13/2006 ..... 85.59 ..... 37%

Three things to keep in mind when looking at this.

  • This just looks at the 'effect' of the MacWorld Expo in San Francisco, not New York or Boston.
  • If a date fell on a weekend, it was moved to the next business day to determine pricing.
  • All prices were adjusted for splits.

    As you can see, the Apple stock price was up for four out of the last five years. The overall average of the returns is 14%. Does this mean that there is a correlation? No, not necessarily. Does this mean that it will happen again in future years. Absolutely not; remember past performance is not a guarantee of future results. However, I still find it very interesting.

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