You probably read my recent article about the recession underwear indicator. But what about the real recession? I can tell you the exact day that the current recession will end, and its coming up quickly. It will be this Tuesday, June 30, 2009. This day marks the end of the second quarter of 2009. The Gross Domestic Product, also known as GDP, percent change based on chained 2000 dollars was negative for the third quarter of 2008, the fourth quarter of 2008, and the first quarter of 2009.
According to classic definitions, one quarterly downturn in the Gross Domestic Product (formerly Gross National Product) is a correction, two or three quarterly downturns is a recession, and four or more would be a depression. So if on June 30, we finish the quarter with an increase in the GDP, the recession is over. However, if it is still another downturn in the GDP, then we can no longer be in a recession by definition, we would be in a depression. Unfortunately, we won't know the results until we get the data from the U. S. Government's Bureau of Economic Analysis until probably sometime in September.