Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Will the Apple MacWorld Stock Coorelation Hold Up

Back in January 14, 2007, I wrote about the “MacWorld Expo Apple Stock Price Indicator” which I have been following for years. This is the stock trend of the rising price of Apple Computer stock as the San Francisco MacWorld Expo convention approaches. My previous articles described how in the previous five out of the last six years, Apple Computer stock (AAPL) has increased by at least 8% and as much as 37%, measured from November 15 to the last day of the Expo in January.

At the beginning of this year, the stock repeated its performance, rising about 13% from November 15 to the last day of the Expo on January 12. The overall average for the last six years during this two month time frame was an increase of 14%. What causes this to happen? Probably strong year-end sales of Apple products from holiday shopping, anticipation and release of new products to be released at the Expo, and the heavy promotion of the MacWorld Expo which is indirect stock promotion. As I mentioned in my last article, 'the product buzz created the stock buzz'.

The following table shows the results since 2001. A few notes about this analysis. This just looks at the 'effect' of the MacWorld Expo in San Francisco, not New York or Boston. If a date fell on a weekend, it was moved to the next business day to determine pricing. All prices were adjusted for splits and all returns rounded to the nearest percent.

11/15/2001 ...... 9.73 ..... 1/11/2002 ..... 10.52 ....... 8%
11/15/2002 ...... 7.97 ..... 1/10/2003 ...... 7.36 ...... -8%
11/15/2003 ..... 10.56 ...... 1/8/2004 ..... 11.50 ....... 9%
11/15/2004 ..... 27.62 ..... 1/14/2005 ..... 35.10 ..... 27%
11/15/2005 ..... 62.28 ..... 1/13/2006 ..... 85.59 ..... 37%
11/15/2006 ..... 84.05 ..... 1/12/2007 ..... 94.62 ..... 13%
11/15/2007 .....164.30 ..... 1/18/2008 ..... ?????
Average Return .................................................. 14%

The stock is already up about 19 points from where it was on November 15.

Keep in mind that past performance is not a guarantee of future results. No recommendation is expressed or implied.

Author owns AAPL.

By Fred Fuld at Stockerblog.com

No comments:

Forbes $400 Off Offer

Forbes Limited Time Discount