Monday, February 05, 2007

Hurricane & Stock Market Indicator

If you look at all the major hurricanes in U.S. history, based on the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration definition of "worst, strongest hurricanes", you will find that going back to 1935, every year following the major hurricanes, out of 23 occurrences, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down only three times [two of those times were the dot com crash years of 2000 and 2001. Those dot coms do it every time to these indicators!]. 87% of the time, the Dow was either up or, in a couple instances, flat. Overall average of the years following each of these strongest hurricanes was 11%.

Is there a causation? Is there a correlation? Or just a coincidence. Some investors might say that the rebuilding from the hurricane damage helps to buoy the stock market. I'll let you decide.

Here are the major hurricanes, the year they occurred and DJIA return for the following year:

FLORIDA KEYS LABOR DAY 1935 [ 1935 ] 24%
NEW ENGLAND 1938 [ 1938 ] 1%
GREAT ATLANTIC 1944 [ 1944 ] 33%
CAROL AND EDNA 1954 HAZEL 1954 [ 1954 ] 15%
CONNIE AND DIANE 1955 [ 1955 ] 2%
AUDREY 1957 [ 1957 ] 32%
DONNA 1960 [ 1960 ] 8%
CAMILLE 1969 [ 1969 ] 17%
AGNES 1972 [ 1972 ] -14%
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE 1979 [ 1979 ] 8%
ALICIA 1983 [ 1983 ] 5%
GILBERT 1988 [ 1988 ] 11%
HUGO 1989 [ 1989 ] 6%
ANDREW 1992 [ 1992 ] 20%
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO 1994 [ 1994 ] 40%
OPAL 1995 [ 1995 ] 26%
MITCH 1998 [ 1998 ] 17%
FLOYD 1999 [ 1999 ] 0%
KEITH 2000 [ 2000 ] -9%
TROPICAL STORM ALLISON 2001 IRIS 2001 [ 2001 ] -19%
ISABEL 2003 [ 2003 ] 0%
CHARLEY 2004 FRANCES 2004 IVAN 2004 JEANNE 2004 [ 2004 ] 4%
DENNIS 2005 KATRINA 2005 RITA 2005 WILMA 2005 [ 2005 ] 16%

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