If you look at all the major hurricanes in U.S. history, based on the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration definition of "worst, strongest hurricanes", you will find that going back to 1935, every year following the major hurricanes, out of 23 occurrences, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down only three times [two of those times were the dot com crash years of 2000 and 2001. Those dot coms do it every time to these indicators!]. 87% of the time, the Dow was either up or, in a couple instances, flat. Overall average of the years following each of these strongest hurricanes was 11%.
Is there a causation? Is there a correlation? Or just a coincidence. Some investors might say that the rebuilding from the hurricane damage helps to buoy the stock market. I'll let you decide.
Here are the major hurricanes, the year they occurred and DJIA return for the following year:
FLORIDA KEYS LABOR DAY 1935 [ 1935 ] 24%
NEW ENGLAND 1938 [ 1938 ] 1%
GREAT ATLANTIC 1944 [ 1944 ] 33%
CAROL AND EDNA 1954 HAZEL 1954 [ 1954 ] 15%
CONNIE AND DIANE 1955 [ 1955 ] 2%
AUDREY 1957 [ 1957 ] 32%
DONNA 1960 [ 1960 ] 8%
CAMILLE 1969 [ 1969 ] 17%
AGNES 1972 [ 1972 ] -14%
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE 1979 [ 1979 ] 8%
ALICIA 1983 [ 1983 ] 5%
GILBERT 1988 [ 1988 ] 11%
HUGO 1989 [ 1989 ] 6%
ANDREW 1992 [ 1992 ] 20%
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO 1994 [ 1994 ] 40%
OPAL 1995 [ 1995 ] 26%
MITCH 1998 [ 1998 ] 17%
FLOYD 1999 [ 1999 ] 0%
KEITH 2000 [ 2000 ] -9%
TROPICAL STORM ALLISON 2001 IRIS 2001 [ 2001 ] -19%
ISABEL 2003 [ 2003 ] 0%
CHARLEY 2004 FRANCES 2004 IVAN 2004 JEANNE 2004 [ 2004 ] 4%
DENNIS 2005 KATRINA 2005 RITA 2005 WILMA 2005 [ 2005 ] 16%
Monday, February 05, 2007
Sunday, February 04, 2007
Shrek Switching Sides
Shrek, the famous green ogre developed by DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc. (DWA), is going has been receiving a lot of criticism for promoting a sugary Shrek cereal made by General Mills (GIS). Now Shrek will be involved in a obesity prevention for children and families.
Book Publishing Stocks: It Pays to Read Up on Them
When I was going through the list of the top general investing books on Amazon (AMZN) that I wrote up in a previous article, I discovered that one publisher’s name kept popping up, John Wiley & Sons (JW-A) which trades on the New York Stock Exchange. Several of the books listed on the top ten, including The Only Three Questions That Count: Investing by Knowing What Others Don't
, Get Rich With Options: Four Winning Strategies Straight from the Exchange Floor 
, and The Little Book That Beats the Market
, were published by Wiley. And there are numerous others, not on the top ten, such as SuperCash: The New Hedge Fund Capitalism 
and Trade Like Warren Buffett 
, that were also published by Wiley.
After checking all the book publishing companies, I found that most of them paid dividends, and one had a yield of 3.1%. Here is the list of book publishing stocks, along with their price earnings ratio and yield.
Courier Corp. (CRRC) One of the largest publishers in the United States of educational, religious, and consumer books. P/E 17.8, yield 1.8%
John Wiley & Sons, Inc. (JW-A) This Hoboken, New Jersey company, founded in 1807, publishes print and electronic business, education, and technology books. P/E 20.5, yield 1.1%
McGraw-Hill Companies Inc. (MHP) Publishes education, financial, and business books and information services. Also owns Standard & Poor’s, Also owns BusinessWeek magazine; and J.D. Power and Associates, along with several other divisions. P/E 28, yield 1.1%.
Pearson plc (PSO) This London-based company publishes business and educational textbooks in the United States and Canada. It also publishes The Financial Times newspapers and The Economist magazine. P/E 22.1, yield 3.1%.
Peoples Educational Holdings Inc. (PEDH) Publishes supplementary educational materials for the K through 12 market. Negative earnings, no dividend.
Reader's Digest Association Inc. (RDA) Publishes books, magazines, and music worldwide. P/E 34, yield 2.4%.
Scholastic Corp. (SCHL) Publishes children’s and educational books worldwide. P/E 29.7, no dividend.
Thomson (TOC) Publishes legal, business, and educational books, textbooks, and information services. P/E 28.6, yield 2.1%.
, Get Rich With Options: Four Winning Strategies Straight from the Exchange Floor , and The Little Book That Beats the Market, were published by Wiley. And there are numerous others, not on the top ten, such as SuperCash: The New Hedge Fund Capitalism and Trade Like Warren Buffett , that were also published by Wiley.After checking all the book publishing companies, I found that most of them paid dividends, and one had a yield of 3.1%. Here is the list of book publishing stocks, along with their price earnings ratio and yield.
Courier Corp. (CRRC) One of the largest publishers in the United States of educational, religious, and consumer books. P/E 17.8, yield 1.8%
John Wiley & Sons, Inc. (JW-A) This Hoboken, New Jersey company, founded in 1807, publishes print and electronic business, education, and technology books. P/E 20.5, yield 1.1%
McGraw-Hill Companies Inc. (MHP) Publishes education, financial, and business books and information services. Also owns Standard & Poor’s, Also owns BusinessWeek magazine; and J.D. Power and Associates, along with several other divisions. P/E 28, yield 1.1%.
Pearson plc (PSO) This London-based company publishes business and educational textbooks in the United States and Canada. It also publishes The Financial Times newspapers and The Economist magazine. P/E 22.1, yield 3.1%.
Peoples Educational Holdings Inc. (PEDH) Publishes supplementary educational materials for the K through 12 market. Negative earnings, no dividend.
Reader's Digest Association Inc. (RDA) Publishes books, magazines, and music worldwide. P/E 34, yield 2.4%.
Scholastic Corp. (SCHL) Publishes children’s and educational books worldwide. P/E 29.7, no dividend.
Thomson (TOC) Publishes legal, business, and educational books, textbooks, and information services. P/E 28.6, yield 2.1%.
January Barometer for NASDAQ? Not Necessarily
The January Barometer was discovered by Yale Hirsch, author of the The Stock Trader's Almanac 
which states that as January goes, so goes the rest of the year. This is supposed to be accurate over 90% of the time since 1950, based on the Standard & Poors 500 Index.
However, if you look at the trend for the NASDAQ since 1972, it is only accurate 60% of the time. Out of 35 years, 14 of the years had up January's and up markets; six of the years had down January's and down years. The other 15 years were mixed. The dot com years really threw off the trend. In 1999, January was down 8.7% with the return for the year ending up 57.2%. For the year 2000, January: up 19.2%, year: down 29.6%.
which states that as January goes, so goes the rest of the year. This is supposed to be accurate over 90% of the time since 1950, based on the Standard & Poors 500 Index.However, if you look at the trend for the NASDAQ since 1972, it is only accurate 60% of the time. Out of 35 years, 14 of the years had up January's and up markets; six of the years had down January's and down years. The other 15 years were mixed. The dot com years really threw off the trend. In 1999, January was down 8.7% with the return for the year ending up 57.2%. For the year 2000, January: up 19.2%, year: down 29.6%.
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