Monday, January 04, 2010

Apple Stock MacWorld Expo Convention Correlation


I first started writing about the MacWorld Expo Apple (AAPL) Stock correlation back in January 14, 2007, in an article called the 'MacWorld Expo Apple Stock Price Indicator' which I have been following for years. This is the stock trend which has historically shown that the price of Apple Computer (AAPL) stock increases as the San Francisco MacWorld Expo convention approaches. My previous articles described how in the previous five out of the last six years, Apple Computer stock has increased by at least 8% and as much as 37%, measured from November 15 to the last day of the Expo.

The causes of this are several, and include strong year-end sales of Apple products from holiday shopping, anticipation and release of new products to be released at previous Expos, and the heavy promotion of the MacWorld Expo which is in effect an indirect stock promotion.

The following table shows the results since 2001. A few notes about this analysis. For the 2008 Expo, the stock was down slightly, although on January 15 at the beginning of the conference, the stock closed higher than the previous November 15 date. This just looks at the 'effect' of the MacWorld Expo in San Francisco, not New York or Boston. If a date fell on a weekend, it was moved to the next business day to determine pricing. All prices were adjusted for splits and all returns rounded to the nearest percent.

11/15/2001 ...... 9.73 ..... 1/11/2002 ..... 10.52 ....... 8%
11/15/2002 ...... 7.97 ..... 1/10/2003 ...... 7.36 ...... -8%
11/15/2003 ..... 10.56 ...... 1/8/2004 ..... 11.50 ....... 9%
11/15/2004 ..... 27.62 ..... 1/14/2005 ..... 35.10 ..... 27%
11/15/2005 ..... 62.28 ..... 1/13/2006 ..... 85.59 ..... 37%
11/15/2006 ..... 84.05 ..... 1/12/2007 ..... 94.62 ..... 13%
11/15/2007 .....164.30 ..... 1/18/2008 ..... 161.36 ... -1.8%
11/17/2008* .....88.14 ..... 1/9/2009 ...... 90.58 ..... 2.8%
11/15/2009 .....194.17 ..... 1/4/2010 ..... 214.01 ... 10.2% (so far)
Average Return .................................................. 10.8%

*11/15/08 fell on a Saturday. The following Monday as used.

This year, the MacWorld Expo won't be held until the second week of February. Since the rumors are flying about the new Apple products that are going to be announced at the Expo, there may be more upside potential.

By the way, Apple was one of my screaming buys back in 2006.

If you like interesting correlations, you should check out Correlation Between the Stock Market and Sun Spots, Chocolate Chip Cookies versus the Stock Market, Gasoline at the Pump versus S&P 500, and the Hurricane & Stock Market Indicator.

Author owns AAPL. Keep in mind that past performance is not a guarantee of future results. No recommendation is expressed or implied.


By Stockerblog.com

1 comment:

Fabio M. said...

Nothing will be announced at Macworld Expo in SF because no Apple keynote is scheduled. Apple will not be there. Macworld Expo is dead.